[BAA Comets] [comets-ml] 29P S-W1 Outburst

[Richard Miles]

Very nice series of observations, Jean-François. Thank you for your 
contributions.

My prediction for the next outburst of 29P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 1 was for 
2014 April 28 so this one looks to have taken place on 2014 May 01. The 
uncertainty in my recent predictions I estimated to be 2.5-3.5 days so I 
count this as just in the expected range.

A paper analysing 52 outbursts dating back to 2002 has already been 
submitted for publication in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical 
Association on April 08.

This latest outburst teaches us that the source responsible for this event 
(there are at least 4 sources active on the nucleus) has evolved in recent 
years. The latest prediction I made is based on the average behaviour of the 
comet during the past decade or so. If we compare the time of yesterday's 
outburst with the previous one in March, we see that it occurred 59.7+/-0.6 
days later by my reckoning. The nominal prediction for the same source would 
be 57.7 days, so this one is 2.0+/-0.6 days late: not a great difference but 
one that continues a trend showing that Source B (as I call it) is becoming 
more complex as the years progress.

The unusual behaviour of this comet is very revealing about the processes 
going on beneath the surface of the nucleus of this comet as well as comets 
in general. The paper includes a short description of a mechanism to explain 
29P's outbursts, which is also applicable to many other comets. 29P is just 
the extreme example in that it probably has the slowest rotation rate of any 
comet known to date.

Richard Miles
British Astronomical Association


----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Soulier Jean-François" <jeffcomete at yahoo.com>
To: <comets-ml at yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Friday, May 02, 2014 7:38 AM
Subject: [comets-ml] 29P S-W1 Outburst


Good morning.

W96 observed this comet since 20140424.180 seamless.
Its magnitude range of 17.2 to 16.7

In 20140502.188, the comet appeared in "Outburst".
>From the m2 : 16.8 in the 20140501.184, m2 => 13.8.
Opening all measures 5.5" for a sampling of 0.68"/pix radius.
The coma is +/-26" circular appearance for a single image in clear 120s.

Please find the details of these observations on the following link :
http://6888comete.free.fr/fr/image29PschwassmannwachmannChile.html

Thank you for possible returns observations before this date 20140502.188.

Sincerely.
SOULIER Jean-François
C10/France